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Some people are headline-readers, and others look for the story within the story.
The takeaway point from the 2020/21 German Bundesliga season is that, yet again, Bayern Munich are the champions – the ninth straight year that they have earned the honour. However, this was a campaign that was far from plain sailing for Die Roten (red pants) and, once again, it was the noisy upstarts RB Leipzig that proved to be the sharpest of the thorns in their side.
They finished 13 points behind the champions in the end, but that was largely due to a dismal late-season run, in which they won one of their last six games – prior to that, they were very much in the conversation for glory.
Luck and circumstance also play a part in any football season, and those with an interest in deep stats will also have noted that RB Leipzig topped the Expected Points table – a theoretical list based upon the quality of chances created per game and the number yielded. FC Bayern, who shipped an eye-watering 44 goals, were in that sense fortunate to reign supreme, and they won’t want to be pushed as hard next time around as they seek a magnificent tenth straight league triumph.
It seems a certainty that Hans-Dieter Flick will leave the Allianz Arena this summer and so, maybe, next season will represent Leipzig’s best chance yet of ending Bayern’s hold over German football.
The Numbers Game
If football clubs were judged on their business acumen, RB Leipzig would already be crowned the kings of Europe. They have established themselves as one of the most consistent performers on the continent despite only ever having once spent more than £20 million on a player – an extraordinary statistic when you consider how frequently extortionate transfer fees change hands in the modern game.
On three occasions, Leipzig’s ‘Moneyball’ approach has yielded profits in excess of £20 million on the sale of players – they made £28 million on Naby Keita, £27 million on Timo Werner and £22 million on Dayot Upamecano. The latter, who will join Bayern ahead of the new season, will leave a literal and metaphorical giant hole in Leipzig’s defence, and he will be very difficult to replace.
Indeed, you do wonder if RBL’s strategy of buy low, sell high will truly prevent them from conquering Bayern now or in the future. They will need to start reinvesting some of their profits into proven elite performers at some point, rather than simply trying to create their own.
What happens if a big-money offer comes in for Christopher Nkunku, Dani Olmo or Nordi Mukiele this summer? According to Leipzig’s credos, a sale is likely and thus the cycle continues once more. Bayern will head into the 2021/22 season as favourites in the German Bundesliga winner football betting odds and, based on the on-field action last season, you would argue that Leipzig are the value proposition instead.
However, the sale of Upamecano – plus any other players that might be sold in line with the club’s economic policy – means that, once again, RB Leipzig may be the bridesmaid, rather than the bride, come the end of the campaign.
